5月18日,软银集团发布了截至3月的2019财年业绩报告。财报显示2019年软银集团经营亏损1.365万亿日元(约127亿美元)。其中受Uber和WeWork股权公允价值的缩水影响较大,而新冠疫情也导致了其他公司股权公允价值下降。
此外,马云也于近日退出了软银董事会。马云自2007年就担任此职,但现在却也离开软银,成为半年之内第二位离开的孙正义的老战友。之前在2019年年末,担任软银董事18年之久的优衣库创始人柳井正也宣布退出。
当年对阿里的成功投资让软银成为“投资神话”,可似乎投资了阿里之后软银就再没有可圈可点的投资案例,反而投资了WeWork成为了业内败笔。在向WeWork投资百亿美元之后,就像是吞下了一颗苦涩的药丸,孙正义在风投界的名誉亦由此受到重创。
失败其实早有端倪,在去年年底软银亏损超出450亿元之时,孙正义就在财报会议上反思了自己的失误:Uber的股价从上市以来下跌了30%,Slack的股价自6月份以来下跌超过40%,WeWork更是 IPO失败创始人离职。
其实早年间孙正义还是很有投资才能的。12岁时就帮助父亲盘活了一个濒临倒闭的咖啡厅。1981年创立软银,软银最初只是一家不景气的软件银行,孙正义凭借其出色的谈判能力融到了不少资金度过难关。
1994年软银成功上市,1999年凭借对雅虎的投资,孙正义成了世界首富。可随着互联网泡沫炸裂,软银市值也迅速下跌,1年内蒸发了99%,从2000亿美元跌到了20亿美元。
此时,马云的出现给了孙正义希望。孙正义后来回忆,尽管马云没有商业计划书,商业模式都是错的,但因为马云的眼神异常坚定,并且孙正义觉得他领导能力非凡,于是决定给予马云2000万美元的投资。
后来我们都知道,孙正义赌对了,2014年阿里上市,软银市值暴涨再度封神,当初2000万美元的投资获得了超过600亿美元的回报。此后的十余年,靠着投资阿里1000多倍的回报,软银获利至少超出1000亿美元。
然而没有人能永远屹立不倒,孙正义的眼光也会不准,或者说除此之外,孙正义的立场也有问题。
2004年软银收购了日本电信,并一直保持着与华为的紧密合作,日本有60%的移动通讯设备都是由华为生产的。可是在美国对华为实施禁令后,作为华为多年合作伙伴的软银却第一个站了出来支持美国。
孙正义放弃了华为在日本的5G技术和设备,与诺基亚签署了一份5G合同,由其投资的ARM芯片制造商也同时宣布停止向华为提供ARM芯片。为了向美国示好,孙正义一边从阿里套现,一边加大了对美国企业的投资力度,甚至还宣布将在美国投500亿美元,带去50000个工作岗位。
孙正义站队美国态度显著,但是也由此尝到了苦果。可以看到,软银投资的美国企业几乎都没有什么好结果,早在2018年,软银累计负债就已达1000亿美元(约6000亿元)。
高额的负债与新的巨额亏损,预示着软银时代的终结。如今“赌博式投资”早已不时兴,更何况孙正义已经站错了队,如今华为的5G技术获得了多数国家的认可,而孙正义则接连失去战友与资金,软银也注定要为不当的商业逻辑与商业抉择付出应有的代价。
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